We are in the midst of a substantial technological revolution embodied by artificial intelligence, and whilst the technology is frequently overhyped, there is little doubt that it will continue to exert a significant influence on everyday life. Technological developments have been accompanied by lawsuits, policy papers, and even legislative action as societies worldwide endeavour to comprehend these ongoing transformations. However, these developments do not occur in isolation, and to my mind, the near future may be substantially shaped by the political shifts currently unfolding.
The United States
The recent election of Donald Trump is likely to have a huge effect on AI as a whole, and I haven’t really seen a lot of this discussed more widely, although this may be caused by the evident anxiety that the election has had in most people I follow. It’s difficult to think about AI policy when the future of so many institutions is at peril. But I strongly believe that Trump will have a huge effect on AI.
Elon Musk’s full endorsement of Trump is symptomatic of a marked shift rightward by the US Technocratic elites. Prominent tech figures such as Peter Thiel were always on the right, but Trump has also received growing support from venture capitalists and crypto enthusiasts, with everyone agreeing that JD Vance was put in place with the strong support of the tech interests. But something else that has happened is that other technology billionaires (particularly Zuckerberg and Bezos) who were openly supporting Democrats in the past either jumped into the MAGA train, or became openly neutral, probably expecting a Trump win.
But this tech polarisation has also been followed by a remarkable loss of power and influence by legacy media, such as TV, cable news, printed newspapers and magazines. It’s trite to point out that this industry has been affected by the Internet, but the Trump election is indicative of just how low their influence has fallen, as they see influencers and podcasters become more powerful. Similarly, it was remarkable just how little effect celebrity endorsements had in favour of Kamala Harris, which further serves as evidence that there has been a shift of power. Not even Taylor Swift was able to shift polls to benefit Harris.
The result of the above will potentially have a huge effect on how AI is handled in the US. We have two sides that have diametrically opposed interests with regards to AI: the tech industry wants to push AI at all cost, while legacy media and the creative industries want either to stop development, or to obtain licensing deals to ensure future payment. A government that is pro-tech is also likely to be strongly pro-AI, particularly if Musk continues to have as much influence as it seems. At the least this is likely going to translate into a complete lack of regulation at the executive level, expect regulators such as the FTC to completely drop any sort of action against AI companies.
This should not have an effect on the ongoing cases, at least at the start. My prediction has always been that we were likely to see a number of diverging decisions at the lower court level, some in favour of the claimants, some in favour of the defendants, and that some of these cases would be appealed until there would eventually be a showdown at the US Supreme Court. However, a recent victory by defendants OpenAI in its ongoing case from independent publishers Alternet and Raw Story could signal a huge shift in some of the cases, particularly those who cannot prove that they have been damaged by AI (read the excellent analysis of the decision here). But whatever happens, Republican control of the Supreme Court should only be entrenched in the near future, which also favours the tech industry in the long run.
Even assuming a widespread and decisive win at the courts by the claimants in the AI lawsuits, the Republicans control the legislature, which could prompt the tech industry to push for some sort of limitation of liability for developers, think Section 230 or the DMCA. This would clearly be opposed by the creative industries and legacy media, but as I have explained, these have lost a lot of power and influence. Even worse, it is perfectly possible for a vindictive Trump to completely try to annihilate the cultural elites that constantly oppose him. Social media and podcasters are less preoccupied by copyright than the creative industries, and one could easily see some sort of attempt to punish the “woke elites” by deploying legislation that erodes copyright.
And this doesn’t even consider what could happen with a change of helm at the US Copyright Office. What would be the effect of a pro-tech, pro-AI registrar?
The UK
The situation in the UK could become more interesting in the near future. The previous government had skirted around legislation and regulation of AI, but all of those efforts were reset by the election of Labour back in July, and Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. Those interested in AI regulation wondered whether the new government would push for an AI regulation bill in the same line as the EU’s AI Act, the Labour manifesto hinted at it, but this did not happen during the 2024 King’s Speech. There was a brief mention of AI, but no legislation was announced. However, there were several declarations that some sort of regulation will be forthcoming, but nothing specific just yet.
With regards to copyright, things became decidedly more controversial after it was reported that Lisa Nandy, the new Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, had commented that a change to copyright was needed in order to boost AI adoption. This was the idea that the UK would adopt an opt-out regime, similar to that in existence in the EU. The current exception for text and data mining in the UK only allows for training for research. Companies like Google have expressed that they would like to see a change in the law to allow for opt-outs. This declaration drew the immediate ire of the influential creative industries in the UK, with a collective letter from celebrities decrying the move, as well as a a letter by the Chair of the Culture, Media & Sport Select Committee, who wrote to Nandy and Science Secretary Peter Kyle asking for any future move to consider the UK’s creative industry’s welfare.
We are set for a potential clash between pro-tech and pro-creative interests, one likely to be more contested than in the US. On the one hand, after Brexit, the UK economy took a hit, and the country remains in financial trouble. Starmer’s government has prioritised growth, with a significant focus on pro-technology policies designed to attract investment and drive economic recovery. AI appears to play a key role in these growth plans, with companies like Google enjoying increasing influence.
On the other hand, the creative industries remain highly influential in the UK, where they are regarded as a vital element of the country’s soft power. While the influence of legacy media has been waning, there is no doubt that creatives still wield considerable power across the UK. It would not be unreasonable to suggest that a campaign led by celebrities could hinder any legislative moves to expand the existing TDM exception.
However, this assumption relies on the notion that legacy media continues to hold significant sway, which may soon be tested. A decidedly pro-AI Trump administration in the US and the growing influence of figures like Elon Musk could encourage the UK to adopt a more competitive stance. Given that the EU already offers an opt-out exception under Article 4 of the DSM Directive, the UK government, eager to attract tech investment, might be tempted to overlook protests from the creative classes.
Concluding
Only time will tell what will happen, but at least at the moment we are set for a potential political clash with copyright at its centre.This makes me excited as it will undoubtedly give me more writing material.
I have written before about the different camps in the Copyright Wars. I find it strange how the tech industry has become minimalist, while creatives have become more and more maximalists, the lines of copyright have been re-drawn, and I wonder who will be fighting on which side in the coming years.
Remember, begun, the AI War has.
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